SIX NATIONS 2024: ROUND THREE PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS
Ireland vs Wales - Saturday February 24 (2.15pm)
With a trademark victory out in Marseille, Ireland have a clear runway to be the first nation in history to complete consecutive Grand Slams. A few errors and shaky moments didn’t deter Andy Farrell’s side from brushing aside Italy in Dublin in round two, they scored six tries while completely shutting out the the Azzurri.
Farrell was able to make six changes against Italy, though the sight of Hugo Keenan limping off in the second half will have been deeply disturbing. Despite that, the dependable full back is in contention to face Wales. Robbie Henshaw has been a standout presence in midfield alongside Bundee Aki, but Garry Ringrose is close to fitness and could be preferred in the back half of the tournament.
Ireland’s Grand Slam ambitions will rest with how Farrell manages injuries among his squad. Aki, Keenan, Ringrose, Peter O’Mahony, Caelan Doris and Iain Henderson have all picked up injuries or are fighting their way back to fitness. Squad depth isn’t a question, but an unsettled XV could undermine an otherwise immense Irish side as the Six Nations progresses.
Let the record show, two matches have yielded two defeats, yet Wales have performed in patches that would have you think otherwise. Under Warren Gatland, Wales have been perennial slow starters - evidenced by their first half mauling against Scotland in round one. The trend was bucked at Twickenham in round two, where they led at half-time. Yet a 14-5 advantage was overhauled, with Wales scoring no points in the second half and conceding 11.
The reasoning is as clear as day, Gatland has called upon a youthful contingent, an inexperienced side just lacked the composure to seal victory. Scotland and England have taken advantage of Wales’ lacklustre kicking game, both capitalised on 50-22 opportunities and largely won the territory battle in those exchanges. There have been bright spots, Tommy Reffell has been one of the tournament’s standout players over two rounds as part of a youthful pack.
Blooding in an array of exciting prospects isn’t an overnight fix, but Gatland is not opposed to throwing caution to the wind with his selection. Sam Costelow is brought back into the lineup at the expense of Ioan Lloyd who drops to the bench, Wales will be up against it come Saturday having not won at the Aviva Stadium in this tournament since 2012.
Prediction: Ireland 35-17 Wales
Scotland v England - Saturday February 24 (4.45pm)
Scotland could’ve and should’ve beaten France at Murrayfield in round two, crucially they didn’t. Late TMO drama controversially denied Gregor Townsend’s side, but the hosts weren't clinical enough in the first half with the wind in their sails. There were more opportunities in the second half, but Scotland didn't convert - they only scored three points after the break.
The stakes are raised this weekend as England travel to Edinburgh. The Calcutta Cup has largely been a one-sided affair in England’s favour throughout the 21st century, but Scotland have won the past three encounters. The squad has been reinforced following the France defeat, Hamish Watson has been recalled to the squad while Blair Kinghorn and WP Nel are fit to return from injury.
Should Townsend’s men win a fourth consecutive Calcutta Cup, denying Ireland a Grand Slam in Dublin could become a realistic possibility with title ambitions of their own. That said, Scotland require vital bonus victories - is that too tall an order? An elusive Six Nations title is the ultimate goal, this could potentially be Scotland’s greatest opportunity - but a comprehensive victory over England is a necessary first step.
It hasn’t been pretty, but England are two from two. Down 14-5 at half time against Wales, Steve Borthwick’s side showed great resilience to fight back into the game having been reduced to 13 men at one stage. While their defence, kicking game, and set-pieces have all come on considerably in the 15 months since Borthwick took over, the development of the side’s attacking game, or lack thereof, has been apparent.
It’s hardly any surprise, Leicester Tigers won the Premiership title back in 2022 under the former England captain through a solid set piece and a proficient kicking game. Forcing opponents into errors has been the gameplan under Borthwick as opposed to true attacking endeavour. The phrase ‘winning ugly’ has been thrown about, but England have big ball carriers returning and have a new defensive structure that's working.
Scrum-half Alex Mitchell, integral behind the scrum as he is, will miss the visit to Edinburgh on Saturday after suffering a knee injury. Danny Care or Ben Spencer will likely be drafted in to replace Mitchell, Second Row George Martin and Prop Ellis Genge are fit again, while centres Ollie Lawrence and Manu Tuilagi are back in contention to bolster midfield options. England have beaten Scotland only once in their past six meetings, but victory at Murrayfield could spark Grand Slam discourse - even with Ireland and France still left to play.
Prediction: Scotland 20-13 England
France v Italy - Sunday February 25 (3pm)
Let off the hook? Call it what you want, France would’ve been staring down the barrel had referee Nic Berry awarded Scotland a late try against Les Blues in round two. France have now won 10 of their past 12 Six Nations matches, but look a jaded force without the talismanic Antoine Dupont in their ranks.
France can claw their way back into tournament contention with victory on Sunday, their 14-game winning streak against Italy stretches eleven years. Fabien Galthie will be without the services of stand-in captain Gregory Alldritt this weekend through injury, although scrum-half Baptise Serin, winger Gabin Villiere and fullback Melvyn Jaminet were all seen in training this week, all three have not featured so far in this year’s Six Nations.
Les Bleus have new coaches in charge of the attack and lineout, and unsurprisingly those are the facets of their play which have caused the most consternation for Fabien Galthie over the first two rounds. It’s apparent France aren’t the same animal they were prior to the World Cup, but they can still call upon quality performers to dig them out of trouble.
Our prediction for Italy to turn in their best-ever Six Nations performance has gone swimmingly well thus far. Head Coach Gonzalo Quesada nearly began his reign with a historic victory over England, but that fell by the wayside. Any sort of result in Dublin was a tough ask and they were brutally put to the sword by Ireland in round two, failing to score a single point in the process.
The injury list is growing with Sebastian Negri, Lorenzo Cannone, Edoardo Iachizzi and Pietro Ceccarelli all missing, while Tommaso Allan is taking a break from international rugby. There is some good news however, Louis Lynagh, the Treviso-born son of Wallabies great Michael, who also played for the Italian club in the 1990s, quit Harlequins to join Italian club Benetton last week with the aim of representing the Azzurri, he has since been called up to the senior squad.
It’s optimistic, but on paper there are three fixtures that Italy have the capability to win ahead of them to round out the tournament. It starts on Sunday with a trip to Lille. In normal circumstances, facing a team they have not beaten since 2013 and who put sixty points on them just five months ago would be a daunting prospect to say the least. However, all is not rosy in the French camp. After a record loss to Ireland in round one, the 2022 Grand Slam champions are still fragile from their gut-wrenching one-point loss in the Rugby World Cup quarterfinals, Les Bleus are possibly there for the taking.
Prediction: France 24-20 Italy
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